Thoughts on Change:
How to Herd Humans
Without Losing Your Mind

Have you ever introduced a change that made perfect sense…

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The problem was real, the data supported it, the new process was better.

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And yet…Someone still pushed back.

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Maybe they said, “That’s never going to work.” Maybe they avoided the change. Maybe they kept doing things the old way.

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And we call it resistance to change.

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But what if we're looking at resistance all wrong? What if people aren't actually resisting the change?

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What if they're resisting the future they imagine will be true when the change is implemented?

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In this episode of Thoughts on Change, we're going deeper into the psychology of resistance and exploring a hypothesis that could completely change how we think about buy-in.

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What You'll Learn

In this episode, I explore:

• Why the same change can create completely different reactions in different people

• How our brains fill in the blanks when we're imagining an uncertain future

• What Daniel Gilbert's research on affective forecasting can teach us about resistance to change

• Why we often predict how a future change will make us feel—and why those predictions aren't always accurate

• Why more data and a stronger business case don't necessarily eliminate resistance

• How a perfectly good change can still feel threatening

• Why resistance can be valuable information about the future someone is imagining

• How to shift from trying to convince people to getting curious about the future they're seeing

 

What If People Aren't Resisting the Change?

When someone says, “We've tried that before,” or “That's never going to work,” it's easy to assume they're resisting the change itself.

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But what if we asked a different question?

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“What do they think their world is going to look like if this change actually happens?”

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Because we don't all imagine the same future. You might look at automation and see less manual work, more consistency, and fewer headaches. Someone else might see their job disappearing, their skills becoming irrelevant, or increased monitoring.

 

Same change. Completely different imagined future.

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And if you believe that future is coming, of course you're going to react to it.

 

Our Brains Fill In the Blanks

Every change has a future attached to it. And when we don't know exactly what that future will look like, our brains start filling in the blanks.

• What will my day look like?

• What will I be responsible for?

• Will I still be good at this?

• Will people still need me?

• Will I have any control?

• What happens if I can't figure it out?

• What happens if I fail?

 

We don't just respond to the change that's being proposed. We respond to the future we're imagining.

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And that future can look very different depending on who's doing the imagining.

 

We Don't Just Imagine the Future. We Imagine How It Will Feel.

This is where the research gets really interesting.

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Psychologists Timothy Wilson and Daniel Gilbert have studied something called affective forecasting—how we predict our emotional reactions to events that haven't happened yet.

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And it turns out we're not always very good at it.

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We tend to overestimate how intensely, and for how long, we're going to feel the emotions we associate with future events.

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Think about what that means for change.

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Someone hears: “We're going to automate this process.”

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And their brain doesn't just imagine what will happen, it starts predicting:

• “I'm going to feel anxious.”

• “I'm going to feel incompetent.”

• “I'm going to feel like I don't have control.”

• “I'm going to hate this.”

 

Now they're reacting in the present to emotions they expect to experience in the future.

 

Even when that future hasn't happened yet, the feelings they're predicting can still influence what they do today.

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This Is Why Data Doesn't Always Solve Resistance

This is where we can get ourselves into trouble as CI practitioners.

 

Someone pushes back, and we think: “They just don't have enough information.”

 

So we give them the data, the business case, ROI, the chart. And they still aren't convinced. So we give them more data.

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But what if they're not actually questioning whether the change will work? What if they're worried about what it means for them?

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Data might answer: “Will this work?”

But it doesn't necessarily answer: “What will my life be like if it works?”

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And that may be the question they're actually trying to answer.

 

Even Good Change Can Feel Threatening

The change doesn't have to be bad for the future to feel threatening.

 

A process can be safer. A system can be more efficient. A technology can eliminate tedious work.

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And people can still resist. Because people don't experience change as a spreadsheet.

 

They experience it as a future they're going to have to live in.

 

That future can bring uncertainty around:

• Status

• Competence

• Control

• Autonomy

 

The change may be objectively better. But the future they imagine may not feel better.

 

Resistance Is Information

What if, instead of seeing resistance as an obstacle to overcome, we saw it as information we need?

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Resistance can give us clues about the future someone is imagining.

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When someone says: “This is going to create more work.”

Maybe they're imagining a future where they're already overloaded and this change adds another responsibility.

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The words they're saying are about the change, but the fear underneath them may be about the future.

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The Question I Want You to Start Asking

So here's the shift I want you to experiment with.

The next time you encounter resistance, don't start with: “Why are they resisting?”

Start with: “What future are they resisting?”

• What do they think they're going to lose?

• What do they think is going to get harder?

• What are they afraid will happen?

• What are they uncertain about?

• What does this change mean for their role, their identity, their competence, their control, or their security?

 

And most importantly: What are they imagining that you aren't?

 

Because that question might tell you far more about the resistance than another PowerPoint ever will.

 

The Big Takeaway

Here's my hypothesis:

People don't actually resist change. They resist the future they imagine will be true when the change is implemented.

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That doesn't mean every objection is fear. It doesn't mean every change is good. And it doesn't mean resistance is always irrational.

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It means that when we encounter resistance, there's probably more happening beneath the surface than disagreement with the change itself.

 

Links

Video

C.H.A.N.G.E. Shaper